Facing uncertainty is one of the most unnerving human experience. We humans dislike any life situation where we do not have control. It makes us feel vulnerable and uncomfortable. We do almost anything to avoid not knowing because it creates anxiety about the success or failure in achieving our objectives. We somehow cope with situations but how do we cope with the unknowns?
Donald Rumsfeld, the Defense Secretary under President George W. Bush provided a convoluted yet a good definition of the unknowns, “We know there are ‘Known knowns’, these are the things we know that we know; we also know there are ‘Known unknowns’, these are things that we know that we do not know, but there are also ‘Unknown unknowns’, the things that we don’t know that we don’t know.”
When we have familiarity with a situation, we can predict how the events will unfold and we can plan our course of action with fair degree of certainty. However, it is the latter two categories, the ‘Known unknowns’ and the ‘Unknown unknowns’ that generate anxiety.
Uncertainty is an Everyday Experience
Life is fraught with uncertainty. It is part and parcel of living. We could be driving to work on any given day and be fairly certain that we will get there. Yet there is a small chance that we may not. We think we have a great job and keep our home and hearth but it can be taken away any moment if the employer decides to cut back on work force. We feel secure in our home and yet a tornado, a fire or flood can change everything in a matter of minutes! We can delude our self in believing that not much will change from day to day but life does not come with guarantees.
As the saying goes, change is the only constant and yet, most of the time, we believe that we have a sense of what’s next around the corner. Even when we are not sure, we feel that at least we have wherewithal to handle the situations because we have some level of control. We go through our daily routines with reasonable assurance that we will achieve whatever we set out to do.
Yet, we may encounter uncertainty in the everyday events, as well as in the big events. When facing the unknown, we create mind games with interplay between uncertainty and risk taking, hope and confidence, intuition and rationality. In reality though, coping with unknowns relies on science, as well as, on art.
Coping with Known Unknowns
Generally, life events in the ‘Known- unknowns’ category are man-made events such as, the politics of a nation, the ups and downs of economy, business climate and the stock market, movement of international currency and territorial and trade wars. All of these unknowns result from changes in our philosophy, our perceptions, and shifts in thinking. We fear these because they have significant impact on our lives and our physical and economic well-being. Uncertainties generated by such events make us wary and sometimes feel overwhelmed.
We lean on science to understand patterns and trends and gather evidence. We cope with our anxiety by buttressing our knowledge. We analyze the situation, we take opinion polls and crunch data to assess the risks and calculate the probability of success or failure. We develop the algorithms and processes and procedures to mitigate it. Even in the most mercurial situations, such as investing in stock market, we evaluate the Earnings per Share, Return on Investment, and Return on Equity to eliminate the degree of uncertainty before taking steps. We do not like to fail!
However, instinctively we know that because these events are cyclical, the equilibrium will return in due time. We do have a modicum of control on timings, intensity and the length and breadth of the cycles. We use all the negotiating arsenal, such as, confrontation, pay offs, punishment or reward and the intelligence to improve the chances in our favor. And lastly, we institute changes in policies, laws and logistics, to manipulate the environments toward stability and peace.
But when it comes to big ‘Known-unknowns’, the kind which are not cyclical but linear and with lifelong impacts, we rely more on the art form. Our coping techniques tend to be nebulous, amorphous and undefined. We lean on our instincts, intuition, irrationality, faith, hope and even delusion, if necessary!
The Big Unknown
We deal with the biggest uncertainty, the issue our own lifespan and time of death (the big D) with nonchalance. We take our life for granted. From the existential point of view, our own mortality is the biggest unknown. We acknowledge the big D’s presence because Nature did not provide a choice. In fact, we know for sure that it will happen sometimes in future to us individually, and to our loved ones. What we do not know is when, how and why of the event. So how do humans manage the anxiety factors? We adopt an attitude of que sera, sera, i.e. whatever will be, will be.
We indulge in the artful denials. We literally put it out of our mind, we proverbially, “Perish the thought.” We, “Bury our head in sand”, and we deliberately choose not to see it coming. We ignore it until we are forced to stare at it up close.
Even when we hear of someone’s accidental death or life being cut short, somehow we deny it, simply as happening ‘to others’ or rationalize it as ’it happened because of xyz reasons’. Thus implying that it possibly could not happen to us. Only when Death is undeniably confronting us individually or to our dear ones, we acknowledge it and say, things like, it is “Predestined” or “God’s will “or genetics or epidemics or any plausible cause.
Like an expert surfer, who sees a big wave coming and relies on his or her instinct and self-confidence, and intuitive understanding of the physics of buoyancy and gravity and maintains balance and rides it out it without being overwhelmed, we rely on our instinct and intuition and call various mindsets such as hope, faith and finally acceptance and surrender to ride out the big overwhelm and ‘go with the flow’!
Let’s also consider two other ‘Unknown unknowns’; marriage and parenthood, both generally irrevocable and without plan B! We do not always know that they will end up as success. We are aware of statistics that tell stories of failure of heartbreaks, depression, divorce and many other negative outcomes. However, we humans, pretty much use the same mindset with which we accept impermanence of our existence.
We go into marriage with faith that it would be different for us. People in love rarely stop to assess the risks despite the lurking nervousness about future and plunge in, based on the slender thread of hope. We believe that we will figure out when time comes to deal with situations as they arise. This is also true of parenthood with its myriad challenges. No one knows for sure, quite what to expect, yet most people accept it with open arms.